Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.735027 40.387300 45.867171 52.927369 61.986532 73.533333 89.936744
2025-05-11 29.304353 34.957285 42.295326 52.956734 68.935905 93.862675 140.966659
2025-05-18 24.975931 30.861076 39.018887 51.957241 73.935635 115.263724 223.703759
2025-05-25 22.297264 28.318797 37.117005 52.151710 80.830164 146.544468 418.867600
2025-06-01 20.184315 26.158214 35.238920 51.695651 86.332338 182.498763 949.198005
2025-06-08 18.487392 24.332252 33.494471 50.906777 90.795708 224.533380 3858.663824
2025-06-15 17.142331 22.852524 32.037836 50.227319 95.260771 279.226326 NaN
2025-06-22 16.079831 21.681322 30.903555 49.874798 100.539221 359.241463 NaN
2025-06-29 15.039728 20.435912 29.462553 48.533283 102.370891 434.470043 NaN
2025-07-06 14.714089 20.307319 29.972698 51.571628 120.616893 855.280287 NaN
2025-07-13 13.980580 19.430384 28.987986 50.913995 125.489344 1283.766300 NaN
2025-07-20 13.447715 18.845476 28.480424 51.303402 135.353748 2778.621919 NaN
2025-07-27 12.978732 18.341400 28.087650 51.959264 147.955303 17261.722900 NaN
2025-08-03 12.502495 17.788851 27.538821 52.095624 158.838844 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.975105 17.110112 26.667913 51.168749 163.286080 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.592937 16.663644 26.226519 51.378711 175.870017 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.190539 16.154907 25.606836 50.942568 184.188954 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.795040 15.635695 24.919940 50.176303 189.699187 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.437852 15.166875 24.301831 49.514456 195.925908 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.130170 14.772430 23.811457 49.170862 205.325023 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.775183 14.273810 23.059360 47.860560 204.100556 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.733350 14.351753 23.571043 50.828282 257.064654 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.459685 13.980839 23.053893 50.186259 265.798181 NaN NaN